Early voting for California’s gubernatorial primary is less than four months away. Yet, even after a year of campaigning, the polls suggest that its anyone’s race to win.
Indeed, according to a survey from David Binder Research, Republican Chad Bianco (17%) led, but the Riverside County Sheriff was just 3-points ahead of fellow Republican Steve Hilton, with Katie Porter and Rep. Eric Swalwell – both Democrats – tied at 11%.
The real story, however, is not who is currently in position to advance from the top-two primary.
Rather, it’s that despite testing a dozen candidates and the presence of a candidate with unlimited money – Tom Steyer – a plurality (25%) of respondents were unsure of who they intend to vote for.
Quite simply, the race has no front runner.
Similarly, a separate poll conducted by the Porter campaign found that while she and Swalwell led the Democratic candidates at 14% and 11%, respectively – both trailing the Republicans – roughly one-fifth (18%) of voters were unsure.
Such high levels of uncertainty, despite having high-profile Democrats in the race – not to mention the $26 million of Steyer’s own money he’s spent thus far – underscore how wide open the contest to replace Gavin Newsom is.
Put another way, in a field of current and former U.S. Representatives, former presidential candidates, and longtime state and federal office holders, nobody has been able to emerge as a frontrunner.
To that end, the unsettled race may have created an opening for a new candidate to throw his hat in the ring, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
Moreover, Mahan may have correctly identified why the race remains in flux this late into the campaign: candidates have been focusing on the wrong issues.
As the moderate Democrat told to Politico, “I am different from every other candidate in this race…We have a lot of candidates following a tired playbook…running against Trump. I’m running for the future of California.”
Mahan, the article continued, went on to accuse his opponents of “focusing too heavily on Trump at the expense of ‘pragmatic’ solutions to the state’s problems.”
Spurning the anti-Trump paradigm in favor of advancing a unique agenda is rare for a Democrat these days, particularly in California, where the leading Democrats have jockeyed to show that they are the most anti-Trump, rather than the most pro-California.
During last week’s gubernatorial debate, Mahan stayed true to his “California first, Trump second” views.
Instead of declaring a populist desire to ban ICE and explain his plans to frustrate Trump’s agenda – as virtually every other candidate did – Mahan took a totally different approach.
Emphasizing his commitment to secure borders and “to know ‘who and what’ comes into the country, Mahan made “a call to put partisan politics aside” in order to focus on in-state problems.
Whether or not Mahan is able to advance may hinge on his ability to rapidly scale up a campaign, although he may have the fundraising question settled.
Within days of announcing, he drew backing from Silicon Valley heavyweights, likely helping to boost his war chest to compete against the well-funded Porter and Swalwell, as well as the billionaire Tom Steyer.
In that same vein, simply by taking a totally new approach, Mahan may force the leading Democrats – Porter, Swalwell, and to a lesser extent Tom Steyer – to articulate genuine agendas instead of campaigning solely on anti-Trump messaging.
Some of his opponents have already taken note of the young Bay Area Mayor.
Steyer, the billionaire turned presidential – now gubernatorial – candidate, has taken swipes at Mahan for opposing the proposed billionaires tax, while doubling down on economic populism.
The real contest will be whether or not Mahan can take enough Republican-leaning votes from GOP candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, along with a sufficient number of moderate Democrats in order to beat out either Rep. Eric Swalwell or Katie Porter.
With a heavy focus on healthcare and support for organized labor, Porter, the one-time front runner has clearly staked out her lane to the nomination as the furthest left of the leading candidates.
However, Porter’s status took a serious hit from which she’s been unable to recover from last summer when videos emerged of the former U.S. Rep. berating a reporter and former staffer.
And for his part, Swalwell, who only recently began campaigning in earnest has already pulled in a considerable fundraising haul of $3.1 million, giving him a sizable war chest slightly larger than Porter’s.
Conversely, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Mahan siphons off enough moderate Democrats, leading to either Bianco or Hilton advancing. Given California’s overwhelmingly Democratic electorate, that would be a noteworthy upset.
Mahan’s ideology may help in either of these scenarios.
As Politico noted, Mahan is “squarely in line with Democratic orthodoxy” on key issues like “abortion, gun safety, climate change, and immigration.”
However, the article continues, “he’s known for bucking Sacramento on quality of life issues, drawing praise from some Republicans for his tough-on-crime streak.”
That combination could transform the race.
Finally, there is the lingering question of which – if any – candidates will drop out. Becerra and Villaraigosa have overlapping bases of support – a point I previously made in these pages.But, if one was to drop out, its possible the other could find their way into a competitive position.
Ultimately, the total inability of any candidate to distinguish themselves thus far has led to a vacuum where any two candidates out of half a dozen could plausibly advance.
At the same time, Mahan’s newly-arrived emphasis on addressing the problems facing California rather than how strong he’d be confronting Donald Trump may have a sizable impact on what has become a totally leaderless race.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
